Calvin College
We present the first identification of a candidate precursor for an imminent red nova. Our prediction is based on the example of the precursor to the red nova V1309 Sco, which was retrospectively found to be a contact binary with an exponentially decreasing period. We explore the use of this distinctive timing signature to identify precursors, developing the observational and analysis steps needed. We estimate that our Galaxy has roughly 1-10 observable precursors. Specifically, we lay out the observational case for KIC 9832227, which we identified as a tentative candidate two years ago (Molnar et al. 2015, AAS Meeting Abstracts 415.05). Orbital timing over the past two years has followed the tentative exponential fit. As of late 2015, the period time derivative went beyond the range found in other systems (dP/dt < 1x10^{-8}), a necessary criterion for a serious candidate. We estimate time of merger is the year 2022.2(7). Double absorption line spectra confirm directly the 0.458 d light curve period is a contact binary system and yield a mass ratio m_B/m_A = 0.228(3). Closer analysis of the Kepler timing data shows evidence of a component C with orbital period P_C = 590(8) days and m_C x sin i_C = 0.11 solar masses. An alternative interpretation of the long term timing trend, light travel time delay due to orbit around a distant component D, is ruled out by the spectroscopic data for any nondegenerate star. Additional measurements are needed to test further the merging hypothesis and to utilize fully this fortuitous opportunity.
02 Nov 2008
In their study Bottke et al. (2007) suggest that a member of the Baptistina asteroid family was the probable source of the K/T impactor which ended the reign of the Dinosaurs 65 Myr ago. Knowledge of the physical and material properties pertaining to the Baptistina asteroid family are, however, not well constrained. In an effort to begin addressing the situation, data from an international collaboration of observatories were synthesized to determine the rotational period of the family's largest member, asteroid 298 Baptistina (P_r = 16.23+-0.02 hrs). Discussed here are aspects of the terrestrial impact delivery system, implications arising from the new constraints, and prospects for future work.
We investigate the relationship between brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs) and their host clusters using a sample of nearby galaxy clusters from the Representative XMM Cluster Structure Survey (REXCESS). The sample was imaged with the Southern Observatory for Astrophysical Research (SOAR) in R band to investigate the mass of the old stellar population. Using a metric radius of 12h^-1 kpc, we found that the BCG luminosity depends weakly on overall cluster mass as L_BCG \propto M_cl^0.18+-0.07, consistent with previous work. We found that 90% of the BCGs are located within 0.035 r_500 of the peak of the X-ray emission, including all of the cool core (CC) clusters. We also found an unexpected correlation between the BCG metric luminosity and the core gas density for non-cool core (non-CC) clusters, following a power law of n_e \propto L_BCG^2.7+-0.4 (where n_e is measured at 0.008 r_500). The correlation is not easily explained by star formation (which is weak in non-CC clusters) or overall cluster mass (which is not correlated with core gas density). The trend persists even when the BCG is not located near the peak of the X-ray emission, so proximity is not necessary. We suggest that, for non-CC clusters, this correlation implies that the same process that sets the central entropy of the cluster gas also determines the central stellar density of the BCG, and that this underlying physical process is likely to be mergers.
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