Change-point processes are one flexible approach to model long time series.
We propose a method to uncover which model parameter truly vary when a
change-point is detected. Given a set of breakpoints, we use a penalized
likelihood approach to select the best set of parameters that changes over time
and we prove that the penalty function leads to a consistent selection of the
true model. Estimation is carried out via the deterministic annealing
expectation-maximization algorithm. Our method accounts for model selection
uncertainty and associates a probability to all the possible time-varying
parameter specifications. Monte Carlo simulations highlight that the method
works well for many time series models including heteroskedastic processes. For
a sample of 14 Hedge funds (HF) strategies, using an asset based style pricing
model, we shed light on the promising ability of our method to detect the
time-varying dynamics of risk exposures as well as to forecast HF returns.