Centre d’Etude et de Mathématique Sociales
As mitigating car traffic in cities has become paramount to abate climate change effects, fostering public transport in cities appears ever-more appealing. A key ingredient in that purpose is easy access to mass rapid transit (MRT) systems. So far, we have however few empirical estimates of the coverage of MRT in urban areas, computed as the share of people living in MRT catchment areas, say for instance within walking distance. In this work, we clarify a universal definition of such a metrics, the "People Near Transit (PNT)", and present measures of this quantity for 85 urban areas in OECD countries, the largest dataset of such a quantity so far. By suggesting a standardized protocol, we make our dataset sound and expandable to other countries and cities in the world, which grounds our work into solid basis for multiple reuses in transport, environmental or economic studies.
The science of cities seeks to understand and explain regularities observed in the world's major urban systems. Modelling the population evolution of cities is at the core of this science and of all urban studies. Quantitatively, the most fundamental problem is to understand the hierarchical organization of cities and the statistical occurrence of megacities, first thought to be described by a universal law due to Zipf, but whose validity has been challenged by recent empirical studies. A theoretical model must also be able to explain the relatively frequent rises and falls of cities and civilizations, and despite many attempts these fundamental questions have not been satisfactorily answered yet. Here we fill this gap by introducing a new kind of stochastic equation for modelling population growth in cities, which we construct from an empirical analysis of recent datasets (for Canada, France, UK and USA) that reveals how rare but large interurban migratory shocks dominate city growth. This equation predicts a complex shape for the city distribution and shows that Zipf's law does not hold in general due to finite-time effects, implying a more complex organization of cities. It also predicts the existence of multiple temporal variations in the city hierarchy, in agreement with observations. Our result underlines the importance of rare events in the evolution of complex systems and at a more practical level in urban planning.
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