China Consumption Big Data Academy
This paper investigates the significance of consumer opinions in relation to value in China's A-share market. By analyzing a large dataset comprising over 18 million product reviews by customers on this http URL, we demonstrate that sentiments expressed in consumer reviews can influence stock returns, indicating that consumer opinions contain valuable information that can impact the stock market. Our findings show that Customer Negative Sentiment Tendency (CNST) and One-Star Tendency (OST) have a negative effect on expected stock returns, even after controlling for firm characteristics such as market risk, illiquidity, idiosyncratic volatility, and asset growth. Further analysis reveals that the predictive power of CNST is stronger in firms with high sentiment conditions, growth companies, and firms with lower accounting transparency. We also find that CNST negatively predicts revenue surprises, earnings surprises, and cash flow shocks. These results suggest that online satisfaction derived from big data analysis of customer reviews contains novel information about firms' fundamentals.
Scanner big data has potential to construct Consumer Price Index (CPI). This work utilizes the scanner data of supermarket retail sales, which are provided by China Ant Business Alliance (CAA), to construct the Scanner-data Food Consumer Price Index (S-FCPI) in China, and the index reliability is verified by other macro indicators, especially by China's CPI. And not only that, we build multiple machine learning models based on S-FCPI to quantitatively predict the CPI growth rate in months, and qualitatively predict those directions and levels. The prediction models achieve much better performance than the traditional time series models in existing research. This work paves the way to construct and predict price indexes through using scanner big data in China. S-FCPI can not only reflect the changes of goods prices in higher frequency and wider geographic dimension than CPI, but also provide a new perspective for monitoring macroeconomic operation, predicting inflation and understanding other economic issues, which is beneficial supplement to China's CPI.
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