Time series forecasting is an important task that involves analyzing temporal dependencies and underlying patterns (such as trends, cyclicality, and seasonality) in historical data to predict future values or trends. Current deep learning-based forecasting models primarily employ Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss functions for regression modeling. Despite enabling direct value prediction, this method offers no uncertainty estimation and exhibits poor outlier robustness. To address these limitations, we propose OCE-TS, a novel ordinal classification approach for time series forecasting that replaces MSE with Ordinal Cross-Entropy (OCE) loss, preserving prediction order while quantifying uncertainty through probability output. Specifically, OCE-TS begins by discretizing observed values into ordered intervals and deriving their probabilities via a parametric distribution as supervision signals. Using a simple linear model, we then predict probability distributions for each timestep. The OCE loss is computed between the cumulative distributions of predicted and ground-truth probabilities, explicitly preserving ordinal relationships among forecasted values. Through theoretical analysis using influence functions, we establish that cross-entropy (CE) loss exhibits superior stability and outlier robustness compared to MSE loss. Empirically, we compared OCE-TS with five baseline models-Autoformer, DLinear, iTransformer, TimeXer, and TimeBridge-on seven public time series datasets. Using MSE and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) as evaluation metrics, the results demonstrate that OCE-TS consistently outperforms benchmark models. The codeis publicly available at: this https URL.

Time series forecasting relies on predicting future values from historical data, yet most state-of-the-art approaches-including transformer and multilayer perceptron-based models-optimize using Mean Squared Error (MSE), which has two fundamental weaknesses: its point-wise error computation fails to capture temporal relationships, and it does not account for inherent noise in the data. To overcome these limitations, we introduce the Residual-Informed Loss (RI-Loss), a novel objective function based on the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC). RI-Loss explicitly models noise structure by enforcing dependence between the residual sequence and a random time series, enabling more robust, noise-aware representations. Theoretically, we derive the first non-asymptotic HSIC bound with explicit double-sample complexity terms, achieving optimal convergence rates through Bernstein-type concentration inequalities and Rademacher complexity analysis. This provides rigorous guarantees for RI-Loss optimization while precisely quantifying kernel space interactions. Empirically, experiments across eight real-world benchmarks and five leading forecasting models demonstrate improvements in predictive performance, validating the effectiveness of our approach. The code is publicly available at: this https URL.

Multilayer perceptron (MLP), one of the most fundamental neural networks, is extensively utilized for classification and regression tasks. In this paper, we establish a new generalization error bound, which reveals how the variance of empirical loss influences the generalization ability of the learning model. Inspired by this learning bound, we advocate to reduce the variance of empirical loss to enhance the ability of MLP. As is well-known, bagging is a popular ensemble method to realize variance reduction. However, bagging produces the base training data sets by the Simple Random Sampling (SRS) method, which exhibits a high degree of randomness. To handle this issue, we introduce an ordered structure in the training data set by Rank Set Sampling (RSS) to further reduce the variance of loss and develop a RSS-MLP method. Theoretical results show that the variance of empirical exponential loss and the logistic loss estimated by RSS are smaller than those estimated by SRS, respectively. To validate the performance of RSS-MLP, we conduct comparison experiments on twelve benchmark data sets in terms of the two convex loss functions under two fusion methods. Extensive experimental results and analysis illustrate the effectiveness and rationality of the propose method.