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This work investigates the effects of complex networks on the collective behavior of a three-state opinion formation model in economic systems. Our model considers two distinct types of investors in financial markets: noise traders and fundamentalists. Financial states evolve via probabilistic dynamics that include economic strategies with local and global influences. The local majoritarian opinion drives noise traders' market behavior, while the market index influences the financial decisions of fundamentalist agents. We introduce a level of market anxiety qq present in the decision-making process that influences financial action. In our investigation, nodes of a complex network represent market agents, whereas the links represent their financial interactions. We investigate the stochastic dynamics of the model on three distinct network topologies, including scale-free networks, small-world networks and Erd{\"o}s-R\'enyi random graphs. Our model mirrors various traits observed in real-world financial return series, such as heavy-tailed return distributions, volatility clustering, and short-term memory correlation of returns. The histograms of returns are fitted by coupled Gaussian distributions, quantitatively revealing transitions from a leptokurtic to a mesokurtic regime under specific economic heterogeneity. We show that the market dynamics depend mainly on the average agent connectivity, anxiety level, and market composition rather than on specific features of network topology.
A new maximum likelihood estimation method, Independent Approximates (IA), is developed to estimate parameters of heavy-tailed distributions by re-interpreting Nonextensive Statistical Mechanics' "escort probability" as the "distribution of Independent-Equals." This approach reliably estimates scale and shape parameters, demonstrating superior performance over traditional Maximum Likelihood methods in characterizing Student's t and Generalized Pareto distributions across simulations and chaotic system data.
A Coupled Variational Autoencoder, which incorporates both a generalized loss function and latent layer distribution, shows improvement in the accuracy and robustness of generated replicas of MNIST numerals. The latent layer uses a Student's t-distribution to incorporate heavy-tail decay. The loss function uses a coupled logarithm, which increases the penalty on images with outlier likelihood. The generalized mean of the generated image's likelihood is used to measure the performance of the algorithm's decisiveness, accuracy, and robustness.
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