When a machine learning model is deployed, its predictions can alter its environment, as better informed agents strategize to suit their own interests. With such alterations in mind, existing approaches to uncertainty quantification break. In this work we propose a new framework, Strategic Conformal Prediction, which is capable of robust uncertainty quantification in such a setting. Strategic Conformal Prediction is backed by a series of theoretical guarantees spanning marginal coverage, training-conditional coverage, tightness and robustness to misspecification that hold in a distribution-free manner. Experimental analysis further validates our method, showing its remarkable effectiveness in face of arbitrary strategic alterations, whereas other methods break.

The extraction of relevant data from Electronic Health Records (EHRs) is crucial to identifying symptoms and automating epidemiological surveillance processes. By harnessing the vast amount of unstructured text in EHRs, we can detect patterns that indicate the onset of disease outbreaks, enabling faster, more targeted public health responses. Our proposed framework provides a flexible and efficient solution for mining data from unstructured texts, significantly reducing the need for extensive manual labeling by specialists. Experiments show that our framework achieving strong performance with as few as 200 manually labeled texts, even for complex classification problems. Additionally, our approach can function with simple lightweight models, achieving competitive and occasionally even better results compared to more resource-intensive deep learning models. This capability not only accelerates processing times but also preserves patient privacy, as the data can be processed on weaker on-site hardware rather than being transferred to external systems. Our methodology, therefore, offers a practical, scalable, and privacy-conscious approach to real-time epidemiological monitoring, equipping health institutions to respond rapidly and effectively to emerging health threats.

We study the convergence rate of the Circumcentered-Reflection Method (CRM) for solving the convex feasibility problem and compare it with the Method of Alternating Projections (MAP). Under an error bound assumption, we prove that both methods converge linearly, with asymptotic constants depending on a parameter of the error bound, and that the one derived for CRM is strictly better than the one for MAP. Next, we analyze two classes of fairly generic examples. In the first one, the angle between the convex sets approaches zero near the intersection, so that the MAP sequence converges sublinearly, but CRM still enjoys linear convergence. In the second class of examples, the angle between the sets does not vanish and MAP exhibits its standard behavior, i.e., it converges linearly, yet, perhaps surprisingly, CRM attains superlinear convergence.

This paper investigates the asymptotic convergence behavior of high-order proximal-point algorithms (HiPPA) toward global minimizers, extending the analysis beyond sublinear convergence rate results. Specifically, we consider the proximal operator of a lower semicontinuous function augmented with a $p$th-order regularization for $p>1$, and establish the convergence of HiPPA to a global minimizer with a particular focus on its convergence rate. To this end, we focus on minimizing the class of uniformly quasiconvex functions, including strongly convex, uniformly convex, and strongly quasiconvex functions as special cases. Our analysis reveals the following convergence behaviors of HiPPA when the uniform quasiconvexity modulus admits a power function of degree $q$ as a lower bound on an interval $\mathcal{I}$: (i) for $q\in (1,2]$ and $\mathcal{I}=[0,1)$, HiPPA exhibits local linear rate for $p\in (1,2)$; (ii) for $q=2$ and $\mathcal{I}=[0,\infty)$, HiPPA converges linearly for $p=2$; (iii) for $p=q>2$ and $\mathcal{I}=[0,\infty)$, HiPPA converges linearly; (iv) for $q\geq 2$ and $\mathcal{I}=[0,\infty)$, HiPPA achieves superlinear rate for $p>q$. Notably, to our knowledge, some of these results are novel, even in the context of strongly or uniformly convex functions, offering new insights into optimizing generalized convex problems.

We investigate stochastic differential games of optimal trading comprising a finite population. There are market frictions in the present framework, which take the form of stochastic permanent and temporary price impacts. Moreover, information is asymmetric among the traders, with mild assumptions. For constant market parameters, we provide specialized results. Each player selects her parameters based not only on her informational level but also on her particular preferences. The first part of the work is where we examine the unconstrained problem, in which traders do not necessarily have to reach the end of the horizon with vanishing inventory. In the sequel, we proceed to analyze the constrained situation as an asymptotic limit of the previous one. We prove the existence and uniqueness of a Nash equilibrium in both frameworks, alongside a characterization, under suitable assumptions. We conclude the paper by presenting an extension of the basic model to a hierarchical market, for which we establish the existence, uniqueness, and characterization of a Stackelberg-Nash equilibrium.

We study statistical properties of the optimal value and optimal solutions of the Sample Average Approximation of risk averse stochastic problems. Central Limit Theorem type results are derived for the optimal value and optimal solutions when the stochastic program is expressed in terms of a law invariant coherent risk measure. The obtained results are applied to hypotheses testing problems aiming at comparing the optimal values of several risk averse convex stochastic programs on the basis of samples of the underlying random vectors. We also consider non-asymptotic tests based on confidence intervals on the optimal values of the stochastic programs obtained using the Stochastic Mirror Descent algorithm. Numerical simulations show how to use our developments to choose among different distributions and show the superiority of the asymptotic tests on a class of risk averse stochastic programs.

Effectively analyzing spatiotemporal data plays a central role in understanding real-world phenomena and informing decision-making. Capturing the interaction between spatial and temporal dimensions also helps explain the underlying structure of the data. However, most datasets do not reveal attribute relationships, requiring additional algorithms to extract meaningful patterns. Existing visualization tools often focus either on attribute relationships or spatiotemporal analysis, but rarely support both simultaneously. In this paper, we present STRive (SpatioTemporal Rule Interactive Visual Explorer), a visual analytics system that enables users to uncover and explore spatial and temporal patterns in data. At the core of STRive lies Association Rule Mining (ARM), which we apply to spatiotemporal datasets to generate interpretable and actionable insights. We combine ARM with multiple interactive mechanisms to analyze the extracted relationships. Association rules serve as interpretable guidance mechanisms for visual analytics by highlighting the meaningful aspects of the data that users should investigate. Our methodology includes three key steps: rule generation, rule clustering, and interactive visualization. STRive offers two modes of analysis. The first operates at the rule cluster level and includes four coordinated views, each showing a different facet of a cluster, including its temporal and spatial behavior. The second mode mirrors the first but focuses on individual rules within a selected cluster. We evaluate the effectiveness of STRive through two case studies involving real-world datasets -- fatal vehicle accidents and urban crime. Results demonstrate the system's ability to support the discovery and analysis of interpretable patterns in complex spatiotemporal contexts.

Can temporary subsidies to bundles induce long-run changes in demand due to learning about the quality of one of the constituent goods? This paper provides theoretical support and empirical evidence on this mechanism. Theoretically, we introduce a model where an agent learns about the quality of an innovation through repeated consumption. We then assess the predictions of our theory in a randomised experiment in a ridesharing platform. The experiment subsidised car trips integrating with a train or metro station, which we interpret as a bundle. Given the heavy-tailed nature of our data, we propose a semiparametric specification for treatment effects that enables the construction of more efficient estimators. We then introduce an efficient estimator for our specification by relying on L-moments. Our results indicate that a ten-weekday 50\% discount on integrated trips leads to a large contemporaneous increase in the demand for integration, and, consistent with our model, persistent changes in the mean and dispersion of nonintegrated app rides. These effects last for over four months. A calibration of our theoretical model suggests that around 40\% of the contemporaneous increase in integrated rides may be attributable to increased incentives to learning. Our results have nontrivial policy implications for the design of public transit systems.