With the advance of high-throughput genotyping and sequencing technologies,
it becomes feasible to comprehensive evaluate the role of massive genetic
predictors in disease prediction. There exists, therefore, a critical need for
developing appropriate statistical measurements to access the combined effects
of these genetic variants in disease prediction. Predictiveness curve is
commonly used as a graphical tool to measure the predictive ability of a risk
prediction model on a single continuous biomarker. Yet, for most complex
diseases, risk prediciton models are formed on multiple genetic variants. We
therefore propose a multi-marker predictiveness curve and provide a
non-parametric method to construct the curve for case-control studies. We
further introduce a global predictiveness U and a partial predictiveness U to
summarize prediction curve across the whole population and sub-population of
clinical interest, respectively. We also demonstrate the connections of
predictiveness curve with ROC curve and Lorenz curve. Through simulation, we
compared the performance of the predictiveness U to other three summary
indices: R square, Total Gain, and Average Entropy, and showed that
Predictiveness U outperformed the other three indexes in terms of unbiasedness
and robustness. Moreover, we simulated a series of rare-variants disease model,
found partial predictiveness U performed better than global predictiveness U.
Finally, we conducted a real data analysis, using predictiveness curve and
predictiveness U to evaluate a risk prediction model for Nicotine Dependence.