The stock market is a fundamental component of financial systems, reflecting economic health, providing investment opportunities, and influencing global dynamics. Accurate stock market predictions can lead to significant gains and promote better investment decisions. However, predicting stock market trends is challenging due to their non-linear and stochastic nature. This study investigates the efficacy of advanced deep learning models for short-term trend forecasting using daily and hourly closing prices from the S&P 500 index and the Brazilian ETF EWZ. The models explored include Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN), Neural Basis Expansion Analysis for Time Series Forecasting (N-BEATS), Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFT), Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting (N-HiTS), and Time-series Dense Encoder (TiDE). Furthermore, we introduce the Extended Long Short-Term Memory for Time Series (xLSTM-TS) model, an xLSTM adaptation optimised for time series prediction. Wavelet denoising techniques were applied to smooth the signal and reduce minor fluctuations, providing cleaner data as input for all approaches. Denoising significantly improved performance in predicting stock price direction. Among the models tested, xLSTM-TS consistently outperformed others. For example, it achieved a test accuracy of 72.82% and an F1 score of 73.16% on the EWZ daily dataset. By leveraging advanced deep learning models and effective data preprocessing techniques, this research provides valuable insights into the application of machine learning for market movement forecasting, highlighting both the potential and the challenges involved.

Reward models are widely used as proxies for human preferences when aligning or evaluating LLMs. However, reward models are black boxes, and it is often unclear what, exactly, they are actually rewarding. In this paper we develop Rewrite-based Attribute Treatment Estimator (RATE) as an effective method for measuring the sensitivity of a reward model to high-level attributes of responses, such as sentiment, helpfulness, or complexity. Importantly, RATE measures the causal effect of an attribute on the reward. RATE uses LLMs to rewrite responses to produce imperfect counterfactuals examples that can be used to measure causal effects. A key challenge is that these rewrites are imperfect in a manner that can induce substantial bias in the estimated sensitivity of the reward model to the attribute. The core idea of RATE is to adjust for this imperfect-rewrite effect by rewriting twice. We establish the validity of the RATE procedure and show empirically that it is an effective estimator.

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a tree-based machine learning method that has been successfully applied to regression and classification problems. BART assumes regularisation priors on a set of trees that work as weak learners and is very flexible for predicting in the presence of non-linearity and high-order interactions. In this paper, we introduce an extension of BART, called Model Trees BART (MOTR-BART), that considers piecewise linear functions at node levels instead of piecewise constants. In MOTR-BART, rather than having a unique value at node level for the prediction, a linear predictor is estimated considering the covariates that have been used as the split variables in the corresponding tree. In our approach, local linearities are captured more efficiently and fewer trees are required to achieve equal or better performance than BART. Via simulation studies and real data applications, we compare MOTR-BART to its main competitors. R code for MOTR-BART implementation is available at this https URL

Spell checking and morphological analysis are two fundamental tasks in text and natural language processing and are addressed in the early stages of the development of language technology. Despite the previous efforts, there is no progress in open-source to create such tools for Sorani Kurdish, also known as Central Kurdish, as a less-resourced language. In this paper, we present our efforts in annotating a lexicon with morphosyntactic tags and also, extracting morphological rules of Sorani Kurdish to build a morphological analyzer, a stemmer and a spell-checking system using Hunspell. This implementation can be used for further developments in the field by researchers and also, be integrated into text editors under a publicly available license.

Recently, the use of synthetic datasets based on game engines has been shown to improve the performance of several tasks in computer vision. However, these datasets are typically only appropriate for the specific domains depicted in computer games, such as urban scenes involving vehicles and people. In this paper, we present an approach to generate synthetic datasets for object counting for any domain without the need for photo-realistic techniques manually generated by expensive teams of 3D artists. We introduce a domain randomization approach for object counting based on synthetic datasets that are quick and inexpensive to generate. We deliberately avoid photorealism and drastically increase the variability of the dataset, producing images with random textures and 3D transformations, which improves generalization. Experiments show that our method facilitates good performance on various real word object counting datasets for multiple domains: people, vehicles, penguins, and fruit. The source code is available at: this https URL

Complex Event Processing (CEP) is an event processing paradigm to perform real-time analytics over streaming data and match high-level event patterns. Presently, CEP is limited to process structured data stream. Video streams are complicated due to their unstructured data model and limit CEP systems to perform matching over them. This work introduces a graph-based structure for continuous evolving video streams, which enables the CEP system to query complex video event patterns. We propose the Video Event Knowledge Graph (VEKG), a graph driven representation of video data. VEKG models video objects as nodes and their relationship interaction as edges over time and space. It creates a semantic knowledge representation of video data derived from the detection of high-level semantic concepts from the video using an ensemble of deep learning models. A CEP-based state optimization - VEKG-Time Aggregated Graph (VEKG-TAG) is proposed over VEKG representation for faster event detection. VEKG-TAG is a spatiotemporal graph aggregation method that provides a summarized view of the VEKG graph over a given time length. We defined a set of nine event pattern rules for two domains (Activity Recognition and Traffic Management), which act as a query and applied over VEKG graphs to discover complex event patterns. To show the efficacy of our approach, we performed extensive experiments over 801 video clips across 10 datasets. The proposed VEKG approach was compared with other state-of-the-art methods and was able to detect complex event patterns over videos with F-Score ranging from 0.44 to 0.90. In the given experiments, the optimized VEKG-TAG was able to reduce 99% and 93% of VEKG nodes and edges, respectively, with 5.19X faster search time, achieving sub-second median latency of 4-20 milliseconds.

Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions represents a challenging suite of problems in modern statistics. In this work we analyse the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (COM-Poisson) distribution, a two parameter generalisation of the Poisson distribution. COM-Poisson regression modelling allows the flexibility to model dispersed count data as part of a generalised linear model (GLM) with a COM-Poisson response, where exogenous covariates control the mean and dispersion level of the response. The major difficulty with COM-Poisson regression is that the likelihood function contains multiple intractable normalising constants and is not amenable to standard inference and MCMC techniques. Recent work by Chanialidis et al. (2017) has seen the development of a sampler to draw random variates from the COM-Poisson likelihood using a rejection sampling algorithm. We provide a new rejection sampler for the COM-Poisson distribution which significantly reduces the CPU time required to perform inference for COM-Poisson regression models. A novel extension of this work shows that for any intractable likelihood function with an associated rejection sampler it is possible to construct unbiased estimators of the intractable likelihood which proves useful for model selection or for use within pseudo-marginal MCMC algorithms (Andrieu and Roberts, 2009). We demonstrate all of these methods on a real-world dataset of takeover bids.

Customer churn describes terminating a relationship with a business or reducing customer engagement over a specific period. Customer acquisition cost can be five to six times that of customer retention, hence investing in customers with churn risk is wise. Causal analysis of the churn model can predict whether a customer will churn in the foreseeable future and identify effects and possible causes for churn. In general, this study presents a conceptual framework to discover the confounding features that correlate with independent variables and are causally related to those dependent variables that impact churn. We combine different algorithms including the SMOTE, ensemble ANN, and Bayesian networks to address churn prediction problems on a massive and high-dimensional finance data that is usually generated in financial institutions due to employing interval-based features used in Customer Relationship Management systems. The effects of the curse and blessing of dimensionality assessed by utilising the Recursive Feature Elimination method to overcome the high dimension feature space problem. Moreover, a causal discovery performed to find possible interpretation methods to describe cause probabilities that lead to customer churn. Evaluation metrics on validation data confirm the random forest and our ensemble ANN model, with %86 accuracy, outperformed other approaches. Causal analysis results confirm that some independent causal variables representing the level of super guarantee contribution, account growth, and account balance amount were identified as confounding variables that cause customer churn with a high degree of belief. This article provides a real-world customer churn analysis from current status inference to future directions in local superannuation funds.

Designing systems that can reason across cultures requires that they are grounded in the norms of the contexts in which they operate. However, current research on developing computational models of social norms has primarily focused on American society. Here, we propose a novel approach to discover and compare descriptive social norms across Chinese and American cultures. We demonstrate our approach by leveraging discussions on a Chinese Q&A platform (Zhihu) and the existing SocialChemistry dataset as proxies for contrasting cultural axes, align social situations cross-culturally, and extract social norms from texts using in-context learning. Embedding Chain-of-Thought prompting in a human-AI collaborative framework, we build a high-quality dataset of 3,069 social norms aligned with social situations across Chinese and American cultures alongside corresponding free-text explanations. To test the ability of models to reason about social norms across cultures, we introduce the task of explainable social norm entailment, showing that existing models under 3B parameters have significant room for improvement in both automatic and human evaluation. Further analysis of cross-cultural norm differences based on our dataset shows empirical alignment with the social orientations framework, revealing several situational and descriptive nuances in norms across these cultures.

With the rise of smart mobility and shared e-mobility services, numerous advanced technologies have been applied to this field. Cloud-based traffic simulation solutions have flourished, offering increasingly realistic representations of the evolving mobility landscape. LLMs have emerged as pioneering tools, providing robust support for various applications, including intelligent decision-making, user interaction, and real-time traffic analysis. As user demand for e-mobility continues to grow, delivering comprehensive end-to-end solutions has become crucial. In this paper, we present a cloud-based, LLM-powered shared e-mobility platform, integrated with a mobile application for personalized route recommendations. The optimization module is evaluated based on travel time and cost across different traffic scenarios. Additionally, the LLM-powered RAG framework is evaluated at the schema level for different users, using various evaluation methods. Schema-level RAG with XiYanSQL achieves an average execution accuracy of 0.81 on system operator queries and 0.98 on user queries.

African languages have far less in-language content available digitally, making it challenging for question answering systems to satisfy the information needs of users. Cross-lingual open-retrieval question answering (XOR QA) systems -- those that retrieve answer content from other languages while serving people in their native language -- offer a means of filling this gap. To this end, we create AfriQA, the first cross-lingual QA dataset with a focus on African languages. AfriQA includes 12,000+ XOR QA examples across 10 African languages. While previous datasets have focused primarily on languages where cross-lingual QA augments coverage from the target language, AfriQA focuses on languages where cross-lingual answer content is the only high-coverage source of answer content. Because of this, we argue that African languages are one of the most important and realistic use cases for XOR QA. Our experiments demonstrate the poor performance of automatic translation and multilingual retrieval methods. Overall, AfriQA proves challenging for state-of-the-art QA models. We hope that the dataset enables the development of more equitable QA technology.

Epilepsy is a neurological disorder and for its detection, encephalography (EEG) is a commonly used clinical approach. Manual inspection of EEG brain signals is a time-consuming and laborious process, which puts heavy burden on neurologists and affects their performance. Several automatic techniques have been proposed using traditional approaches to assist neurologists in detecting binary epilepsy scenarios e.g. seizure vs. non-seizure or normal vs. ictal. These methods do not perform well when classifying ternary case e.g. ictal vs. normal vs. inter-ictal; the maximum accuracy for this case by the state-of-the-art-methods is 97+-1%. To overcome this problem, we propose a system based on deep learning, which is an ensemble of pyramidal one-dimensional convolutional neural network (P-1D-CNN) models. In a CNN model, the bottleneck is the large number of learnable parameters. P-1D-CNN works on the concept of refinement approach and it results in 60% fewer parameters compared to traditional CNN models. Further to overcome the limitations of small amount of data, we proposed augmentation schemes for learning P-1D-CNN model. In almost all the cases concerning epilepsy detection, the proposed system gives an accuracy of 99.1+-0.9% on the University of Bonn dataset.

Robotic systems are ever more capable of automation and fulfilment of complex tasks, particularly with reliance on recent advances in intelligent systems, deep learning and artificial intelligence. However, as robots and humans come closer in their interactions, the matter of interpretability, or explainability of robot decision-making processes for the human grows in importance. A successful interaction and collaboration will only take place through mutual understanding of underlying representations of the environment and the task at hand. This is currently a challenge in deep learning systems. We present a hierarchical deep reinforcement learning system, consisting of a low-level agent handling the large actions/states space of a robotic system efficiently, by following the directives of a high-level agent which is learning the high-level dynamics of the environment and task. This high-level agent forms a representation of the world and task at hand that is interpretable for a human operator. The method, which we call Dot-to-Dot, is tested on a MuJoCo-based model of the Fetch Robotics Manipulator, as well as a Shadow Hand, to test its performance. Results show efficient learning of complex actions/states spaces by the low-level agent, and an interpretable representation of the task and decision-making process learned by the high-level agent.

Competitive balance is the subject of much interest in the sports analytics literature and beyond. In this paper, we develop a statistical network model based on an extension of the stochastic block model to assess the balance between teams in a league. Here we represent the outcome of all matches in a football season as a dense network with nodes identified by teams and categorical edges representing the outcome of each game as a win, draw or a loss. The main focus and motivation for this paper is to provide a statistical framework to assess the issue of competitive balance in the context of the English First Division / Premier League over more than 40 seasons. The Premier League is arguably one of the most popular leagues in the world, in terms of its global reach and the revenue which it generates. Therefore it is of wide interest to assess its competitiveness. Our analysis provides evidence suggesting a structural change around the early 2000's from a reasonably balanced league to a two-tier league.

Evaluating the quality of videos generated from text-to-video (T2V) models is important if they are to produce plausible outputs that convince a viewer of their authenticity. We examine some of the metrics used in this area and highlight their limitations. The paper presents a dataset of more than 1,000 generated videos from 5 very recent T2V models on which some of those commonly used quality metrics are applied. We also include extensive human quality evaluations on those videos, allowing the relative strengths and weaknesses of metrics, including human assessment, to be compared. The contribution is an assessment of commonly used quality metrics, and a comparison of their performances and the performance of human evaluations on an open dataset of T2V videos. Our conclusion is that naturalness and semantic matching with the text prompt used to generate the T2V output are important but there is no single measure to capture these subtleties in assessing T2V model output.