Over the past decade alternatives to traditional insurance and banking have grown in popularity. The desire to encourage local participation has lead products such as peer-to-peer insurance, reciprocal contracts, and decentralized finance platforms to increasingly rely on network structures to redistribute risk among participants. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive framework for linear risk sharing (LRS), where random losses are reallocated through nonnegative linear operators which can accommodate a wide range of networks. Building on the theory of stochastic and doubly stochastic matrices, we establish conditions under which constraints such as budget balance, fairness, and diversification are guaranteed. The convex order framework allows us to compare different allocations rigorously, highlighting variance reduction and majorization as natural consequences of doubly stochastic mixing. We then extend the analysis to network-based sharing, showing how their topology shapes risk outcomes in complete, star, ring, random, and scale-free graphs. A second layer of randomness, where the sharing matrix itself is random, is introduced via Erdős--Rényi and preferential-attachment networks, connecting risk-sharing properties to degree distributions. Finally, we study convex combinations of identity and network-induced operators, capturing the trade-off between self-retention and diversification. Our results provide design principles for fair and efficient peer-to-peer insurance and network-based risk pooling, combining mathematical soundness with economic interpretability.

Cooperative game theory methods, notably Shapley values, have significantly enhanced machine learning (ML) interpretability. However, existing explainable AI (XAI) frameworks mainly attribute average model predictions, overlooking predictive uncertainty. This work addresses that gap by proposing a novel, model-agnostic uncertainty attribution (UA) method grounded in conformal prediction (CP). By defining cooperative games where CP interval properties-such as width and bounds-serve as value functions, we systematically attribute predictive uncertainty to input features. Extending beyond the traditional Shapley values, we use the richer class of Harsanyi allocations, and in particular the proportional Shapley values, which distribute attribution proportionally to feature importance. We propose a Monte Carlo approximation method with robust statistical guarantees to address computational feasibility, significantly improving runtime efficiency. Our comprehensive experiments on synthetic benchmarks and real-world datasets demonstrate the practical utility and interpretative depth of our approach. By combining cooperative game theory and conformal prediction, we offer a rigorous, flexible toolkit for understanding and communicating predictive uncertainty in high-stakes ML applications.

Understanding the plausible upper bounds of extreme weather events is essential for risk assessment in a warming climate. Existing methods, based on large ensembles of physics-based models, are often computationally expensive or lack the fidelity needed to simulate rare, high-impact extremes. Here, we present a novel framework that leverages a differentiable hybrid climate model, NeuralGCM, to optimize initial conditions and generate physically consistent worst-case heatwave trajectories. Applied to the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave, our method produces heatwave intensity up to 3.7 $^\circ$C above the most extreme member of a 75-member ensemble. These trajectories feature intensified atmospheric blocking and amplified Rossby wave patterns-hallmarks of severe heat events. Our results demonstrate that differentiable climate models can efficiently explore the upper tails of event likelihoods, providing a powerful new approach for constructing targeted storylines of extreme weather under climate change.

The usual definitions of algorithmic fairness focus on population-level statistics, such as demographic parity or equal opportunity. However, in many social or economic contexts, fairness is not perceived globally, but locally, through an individual's peer network and comparisons. We propose a theoretical model of perceived fairness networks, in which each individual's sense of discrimination depends on the local topology of interactions. We show that even if a decision rule satisfies standard criteria of fairness, perceived discrimination can persist or even increase in the presence of homophily or assortative mixing. We propose a formalism for the concept of fairness perception, linking network structure, local observation, and social perception. Analytical and simulation results highlight how network topology affects the divergence between objective fairness and perceived fairness, with implications for algorithmic governance and applications in finance and collaborative insurance.

Speaker attribution from speech transcripts is the task of identifying a speaker from the transcript of their speech based on patterns in their language use. This task is especially useful when the audio is unavailable (e.g. deleted) or unreliable (e.g. anonymized speech). Prior work in this area has primarily focused on the feasibility of attributing speakers using transcripts produced by human annotators. However, in real-world settings, one often only has more errorful transcripts produced by automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems. In this paper, we conduct what is, to our knowledge, the first comprehensive study of the impact of automatic transcription on speaker attribution performance. In particular, we study the extent to which speaker attribution performance degrades in the face of transcription errors, as well as how properties of the ASR system impact attribution. We find that attribution is surprisingly resilient to word-level transcription errors and that the objective of recovering the true transcript is minimally correlated with attribution performance. Overall, our findings suggest that speaker attribution on more errorful transcripts produced by ASR is as good, if not better, than attribution based on human-transcribed data, possibly because ASR transcription errors can capture speaker-specific features revealing of speaker identity.

This study presents estimates of the global expenditure on article processing charges (APCs) paid to six publishers for open access between 2019 and 2023. APCs are fees charged for publishing in some fully open access journals (gold) and in subscription journals to make individual articles open access (hybrid). There is currently no way to systematically track institutional, national or global expenses for open access publishing due to a lack of transparency in APC prices, what articles they are paid for, or who pays them. We therefore curated and used an open dataset of annual APC list prices from Elsevier, Frontiers, MDPI, PLOS, Springer Nature, and Wiley in combination with the number of open access articles from these publishers indexed by OpenAlex to estimate that, globally, a total of \8.349 billion (\8.968 billion in 2023 US dollars) were spent on APCs between 2019 and 2023. We estimate that in 2023 MDPI (\681.6 million), Elsevier (\582.8 million) and Springer Nature (\546.6) generated the most revenue with APCs. After adjusting for inflation, we also show that annual spending almost tripled from \910.3 million in 2019 to \$2.538 billion in 2023, that hybrid exceed gold fees, and that the median APCs paid are higher than the median listed fees for both gold and hybrid. Our approach addresses major limitations in previous efforts to estimate APCs paid and offers much needed insight into an otherwise opaque aspect of the business of scholarly publishing. We call upon publishers to be more transparent about OA fees.

Machine learning predictions are typically interpreted as the sum of contributions of predictors. Yet, each out-of-sample prediction can also be expressed as a linear combination of in-sample values of the predicted variable, with weights corresponding to pairwise proximity scores between current and past economic events. While this dual route leads nowhere in some contexts (e.g., large cross-sectional datasets), it provides sparser interpretations in settings with many regressors and little training data-like macroeconomic forecasting. In this case, the sequence of contributions can be visualized as a time series, allowing analysts to explain predictions as quantifiable combinations of historical analogies. Moreover, the weights can be viewed as those of a data portfolio, inspiring new diagnostic measures such as forecast concentration, short position, and turnover. We show how weights can be retrieved seamlessly for (kernel) ridge regression, random forest, boosted trees, and neural networks. Then, we apply these tools to analyze post-pandemic forecasts of inflation, GDP growth, and recession probabilities. In all cases, the approach opens the black box from a new angle and demonstrates how machine learning models leverage history partly repeating itself.

The computational complexity of deep learning algorithms has given rise to significant speed and memory challenges for the execution hardware. In energy-limited portable devices, highly efficient processing platforms are indispensable for reproducing the prowess afforded by much bulkier processing platforms. In this work, we present a low-power Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (LIF) neuron design fabricated in TSMC's 28 nm CMOS technology as proof of concept to build an energy-efficient mixed-signal Neuromorphic System-on-Chip (NeuroSoC). The fabricated neuron consumes 1.61 fJ/spike and occupies an active area of 34 $\mu m^{2}$, leading to a maximum spiking frequency of 300 kHz at 250 mV power supply. These performances are used in a software model to emulate the dynamics of a Spiking Neural Network (SNN). Employing supervised backpropagation and a surrogate gradient technique, the resulting accuracy on the MNIST dataset, using 4-bit post-training quantization stands at 82.5\%. The approach underscores the potential of such ASIC implementation of quantized SNNs to deliver high-performance, energy-efficient solutions to various embedded machine-learning applications.

We show that if $X$ is a smooth Fano manifold which caries a K\"ahler Ricci soliton, then the canonical cone of the product of $X$ with a complex projective space of sufficiently large dimension is a Calabi--Yau cone. This can be seen as an asymptotic version of a conjecture by Mabuchi and Nikagawa. This result is obtained by the openness of the set of weight functions $v$ over the momentum polytope of a given smooth Fano manifold, for which a $v$-soliton exists. We discuss other ramifications of this approach, including a Licherowicz type obstruction to the existence of a K\"ahler Ricci soliton and a Fujita type volume bound for the existence of a $v$-soliton.

This paper introduces the multi-freq-ldpy Python package for multiple frequency estimation under Local Differential Privacy (LDP) guarantees. LDP is a gold standard for achieving local privacy with several real-world implementations by big tech companies such as Google, Apple, and Microsoft. The primary application of LDP is frequency (or histogram) estimation, in which the aggregator estimates the number of times each value has been reported. The presented package provides an easy-to-use and fast implementation of state-of-the-art solutions and LDP protocols for frequency estimation of: single attribute (i.e., the building blocks), multiple attributes (i.e., multidimensional data), multiple collections (i.e., longitudinal data), and both multiple attributes/collections. Multi-freq-ldpy is built on the well-established Numpy package -- a de facto standard for scientific computing in Python -- and the Numba package for fast execution. These features are described and illustrated in this paper with four worked examples. This package is open-source and publicly available under an MIT license via GitHub (this https URL) and can be installed via PyPI (this https URL).

Learning from an imbalanced distribution presents a major challenge in predictive modeling, as it generally leads to a reduction in the performance of standard algorithms. Various approaches exist to address this issue, but many of them concern classification problems, with a limited focus on regression. In this paper, we introduce a novel method aimed at enhancing learning on tabular data in the Imbalanced Regression (IR) framework, which remains a significant problem. We propose to use variational autoencoders (VAE) which are known as a powerful tool for synthetic data generation, offering an interesting approach to modeling and capturing latent representations of complex distributions. However, VAEs can be inefficient when dealing with IR. Therefore, we develop a novel approach for generating data, combining VAE with a smoothed bootstrap, specifically designed to address the challenges of IR. We numerically investigate the scope of this method by comparing it against its competitors on simulations and datasets known for IR.

Local projections (LPs) are widely used in empirical macroeconomics to estimate impulse responses to policy interventions. Yet, in many ways, they are black boxes. It is often unclear what mechanism or historical episodes drive a particular estimate. We introduce a new decomposition of LP estimates into the sum of contributions of historical events, which is the product, for each time stamp, of a weight and the realization of the response variable. In the least squares case, we show that these weights admit two interpretations. First, they represent purified and standardized shocks. Second, they serve as proximity scores between the projected policy intervention and past interventions in the sample. Notably, this second interpretation extends naturally to machine learning methods, many of which yield impulse responses that, while nonlinear in predictors, still aggregate past outcomes linearly via proximity-based weights. Applying this framework to shocks in monetary and fiscal policy, global temperature, and the excess bond premium, we find that easily identifiable events-such as Nixon's interference with the Fed, stagflation, World War II, and the Mount Agung volcanic eruption-emerge as dominant drivers of often heavily concentrated impulse response estimates.

Recent research has shown that structured machine learning models such as tree ensembles are vulnerable to privacy attacks targeting their training data. To mitigate these risks, differential privacy (DP) has become a widely adopted countermeasure, as it offers rigorous privacy protection. In this paper, we introduce a reconstruction attack targeting state-of-the-art $\epsilon$-DP random forests. By leveraging a constraint programming model that incorporates knowledge of the forest's structure and DP mechanism characteristics, our approach formally reconstructs the most likely dataset that could have produced a given forest. Through extensive computational experiments, we examine the interplay between model utility, privacy guarantees and reconstruction accuracy across various configurations. Our results reveal that random forests trained with meaningful DP guarantees can still leak portions of their training data. Specifically, while DP reduces the success of reconstruction attacks, the only forests fully robust to our attack exhibit predictive performance no better than a constant classifier. Building on these insights, we also provide practical recommendations for the construction of DP random forests that are more resilient to reconstruction attacks while maintaining a non-trivial predictive performance.

The use of moving averages is pervasive in macroeconomic monitoring, particularly for tracking noisy series such as inflation. The choice of the look-back window is crucial. Too long of a moving average is not timely enough when faced with rapidly evolving economic conditions. Too narrow averages are noisy, limiting signal extraction capabilities. As is well known, this is a bias-variance trade-off. However, it is a time-varying one: the optimal size of the look-back window depends on current macroeconomic conditions. In this paper, we introduce a simple adaptive moving average estimator based on a Random Forest using as sole predictor a time trend. Then, we compare the narratives inferred from the new estimator to those derived from common alternatives across series such as headline inflation, core inflation, and real activity indicators. Notably, we find that this simple tool provides a different account of the post-pandemic inflation acceleration and subsequent deceleration.

Fairwashing refers to the risk that an unfair black-box model can be explained by a fairer model through post-hoc explanation manipulation. In this paper, we investigate the capability of fairwashing attacks by analyzing their fidelity-unfairness trade-offs. In particular, we show that fairwashed explanation models can generalize beyond the suing group (i.e., data points that are being explained), meaning that a fairwashed explainer can be used to rationalize subsequent unfair decisions of a black-box model. We also demonstrate that fairwashing attacks can transfer across black-box models, meaning that other black-box models can perform fairwashing without explicitly using their predictions. This generalization and transferability of fairwashing attacks imply that their detection will be difficult in practice. Finally, we propose an approach to quantify the risk of fairwashing, which is based on the computation of the range of the unfairness of high-fidelity explainers.